Should I Buy Now and Refinance Later—or Wait for Mortgage Rates to Come Down?
By Scott Wagner | Loan Officer | NMLS #612287Updated September 2026
About the Author
I’ve spent more than 20 years in the mortgage industry, including experience as a senior mortgage underwriter. Today, I help homebuyers and homeowners throughout Glenwood Springs, the Roaring Fork Valley and Colorado’s Western Slope understand their financing options, think through the tradeoffs, and make informed mortgage decisions based on their individual circumstances.
This might be the mortgage question I’m hearing more than any other right now:
“Should I buy a house now, or wait for mortgage rates to come down?”
My first answer is pretty simple.
I don’t know where mortgage rates are going.
I can explain what’s affecting them. I can show you what economists are predicting. I can run different scenarios.
But I can’t tell you with any certainty where mortgage rates will be next month, six months from now, or this time next year.
And I don’t think you should make one of the biggest financial decisions of your life based on pretending that any of us can.
So when someone asks me whether they should buy now or wait, I usually turn the question around:
What would actually have to get better for you by waiting?
That’s a question we can work with.
Why Are Mortgage Rates Higher Right Now?
There are legitimate reasons rates have been under pressure lately.
Mortgage News Daily’s September 15, 2026 national mortgage-rate index shows the top-tier conventional 30-year fixed market at 7.22%. More importantly for this conversation, rates have moved noticeably higher in a relatively short period.
Mortgage News Daily is the source I prefer for tracking current market movement because its index is updated each weekday using actual lender rate offerings from wholesale, correspondent and retail sources. Its baseline is a top-tier conventional scenario, and its methodology adjusts for the effect of upfront points. MND itself emphasizes that the index is best used to track changes in the market, not as a rate quote for an individual borrower.
We've also had oil move sharply higher as conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supply. On September 15, WTI crude settled above $105 per barrel and Brent above $108. Higher energy prices have contributed to inflation concerns at the same time Treasury yields have moved higher.
All of that matters.
But here’s what matters more to me when I’m sitting across from a homebuyer:
None of it tells us with certainty where mortgage rates will be six months from now.
That's why I don't want to build your homebuying strategy around somebody's rate forecast.
Market Rate Information & Disclaimer: The Mortgage News Daily rate referenced above is a national market index provided for general educational and market-context purposes only. It is not a rate quote, advertisement of a specific loan program, offer, or commitment to lend by Scott Wagner or Edge Home Finance, LLC. The index is not based on your individual credit profile, property, loan amount, loan-to-value, occupancy, loan program, discount points, or other transaction-specific factors. Actual interest rates, APRs, fees, costs and available loan terms vary based on individual circumstances and market conditions and are subject to change without notice. Contact Scott Wagner for information about financing options that may be available for your specific circumstances.
“I’m Going to Wait Until Rates Get Back Into the 5s.”
I hear this one quite a bit.
Maybe they will.
But when?
That’s the part nobody can answer.
If you’re otherwise financially ready to buy and you’ve decided you won’t purchase until mortgage rates reach a particular number, I’d probably ask you:
Are you willing to stay where you are for another year or two if that doesn’t happen?
Maybe your answer is yes.
That’s perfectly okay.
I’m an advisor. My job isn’t to convince you to buy a house.
My job is to understand your unique situation, help you understand your options, show you the numbers, talk through the risks and tradeoffs I see, and then give you my recommendation.
Ultimately, you own the decision.
That’s important to me.
Because whether you decide to buy or decide to wait, I want it to be an educated decision—not an emotional reaction to an interest rate.
Waiting for a Lower Rate Doesn’t Mean Everything Else Stays the Same
This is probably the biggest piece buyers overlook.
Imagine rates do come down.
Great.
But what happens next?
Potentially, some of the buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines come back into the market.
Now they’re competing for the same homes you are.
And here on the Western Slope, we still have communities where desirable housing inventory can be relatively limited.
That doesn’t mean prices are guaranteed to go up if rates fall. They may not.
But it does mean you can’t assume you’ll get tomorrow’s lower mortgage rate with today’s home price and today’s negotiating leverage.
There are too many moving pieces.
Buyers Have Some Negotiating Power Right Now
This is where the local part of this conversation becomes important.
I'm seeing homes take longer to sell, and I'm seeing sellers more willing to entertain concessions than they were in the much more competitive market a few years ago.
That can matter.
Depending on the transaction and loan program, a seller concession may be available to help cover allowable closing costs or potentially help temporarily or permanently reduce the mortgage rate.
That negotiating leverage has value.
Now imagine rates drop and buyer demand picks up.
Does that seller still need to give you those concessions?
Maybe.
Maybe not.
And that's the point.
I don't want to compare today's mortgage rate against some hypothetical future mortgage rate as though nothing else changes.
I want to compare the entire transaction.
A Small Change in Rate Isn’t the Whole Decision
Buyers understandably pay attention to every movement in mortgage rates.
But a relatively small change in rate shouldn't necessarily determine whether you're ready to become a homeowner.
There are bigger questions.
What’s the purchase price?
How much cash will you have left after closing?
What does the total housing payment look like?
How stable is your income?
How much other debt do you have?
How long do you reasonably expect to own the home?
And maybe most importantly:
Does this payment actually fit your life?
Those are the things I care about.
There’s a Difference Between Qualifying and Being Comfortable
This is probably where my background as a senior mortgage underwriter influences me the most.
I can calculate your debt-to-income ratio.
I can explain how an underwriter looks at your income, debts and other obligations.
And I can tell you what you qualify for.
But then I want to know something the underwriting guidelines don't necessarily tell me:
What does your life actually cost?
What do you spend every month?
After the mortgage, groceries, cars, utilities, kids, travel, hobbies and everything else that's part of your life, are you going to have enough money left over to feel comfortable?
Maybe owning a home is important enough to you that you're willing to change some of your spending habits.
That's okay too.
But I want that to be your conscious decision.
The fact that I can get you qualified for a certain payment doesn't automatically mean that's the payment you should take on.
Sometimes My Recommendation Is to Wait
I believe strongly in homeownership as a way to build equity and potentially create long-term wealth.
That doesn't mean I think everybody should buy a house right now.
If you're struggling to qualify, relying heavily on variable income from a relatively new job or industry, and have little or no cash reserves left after closing, I may tell you to wait.
Not because I think rates are going down.
Because your financial position may get stronger by waiting.
Maybe six months gives you time to build reserves.
Maybe you pay down debt.
Maybe your income becomes more established.
Maybe you simply get to the point where the payment doesn't feel like such a stretch.
That's a very different reason to wait than:
“I hope mortgage rates are lower next spring.”
You Also Have to Want to Be a Homeowner
This isn't only a math problem.
Some people like renting.
They like the flexibility of knowing they can finish a lease and move.
They don't necessarily want to worry about a furnace going out, replacing a roof, maintaining a property, or being tied to one place.
There's nothing wrong with that.
Homeownership requires a different mindset.
If you're buying your first home, I generally want you to be able to reasonably see yourself staying there for at least five years.
Five years isn't a magic number or a guarantee that buying will work out financially. It's simply a timeframe I use to get someone thinking beyond the next year or two. Buying and selling both cost money, and the shorter your ownership period, the less time you have to absorb those costs or weather a change in property value.
If you're pretty sure you're moving again in a year or two, my recommendation may be to keep renting.
You have to want to own.
So When Should Today’s Rate NOT Stop You?
Now let's flip it around.
Imagine you've got stable income.
You comfortably qualify.
You'll still have good residual income and/or cash reserves after closing.
You've found a home you actually want.
The payment fits your life.
And you're committed to being a homeowner for the long term.
At that point, I'd ask:
Are you really going to let an interest rate you can't control keep you from buying a home you can comfortably afford?
Maybe the answer is still yes.
Again, that's your choice.
But now we're making that choice with our eyes open.
“What If I Buy Now and Refinance Later?”
Maybe you can.
But I never want you buying a home today because you need to refinance it later.
That's a very different thing.
Here's the question I'd rather ask:
If mortgage rates don't come down, are you financially, psychologically and emotionally comfortable keeping this mortgage for the long term?
If the answer is no, we need to talk about that before you buy.
If the answer is yes, then a future refinance becomes an opportunity instead of a necessity.
And if that opportunity comes, I'm going to look at more than the new interest rate.
How much are you actually saving each month?
What does the refinance cost?
What's the breakeven point?
How long do you reasonably expect to own the home?
Has the property value changed enough that a new appraisal could potentially help eliminate mortgage insurance?
If you originally used FHA financing, would moving into conventional financing make sense at that point?
Is there another way to restructure the financing that improves your overall monthly cash flow?
A future refinance should be an opportunity. It shouldn't be the reason today's purchase works.
What About the Equity You Could Be Building?
Most of my clients who have purchased homes since 2021 have had concerns about interest rates at some point.
Many purchased anyway because, after we went through the numbers, buying made sense for their situation.
I've watched many of those homeowners build equity.
Some eventually had opportunities to refinance.
Others were later able to use equity they had built to restructure other debt and improve their monthly cash flow.
That doesn't mean every home appreciates.
It doesn't mean buying is guaranteed to make you money.
And I don't believe in the simplistic argument that “renting is throwing money away.”
Renting buys you housing and flexibility.
Owning gives you the opportunity to reduce principal and build equity over time, while also taking on the costs, responsibilities and risks that come with owning a home.
The question isn't whether renting is bad.
It's:
Which lifestyle and financial commitment are you ready for?
Here’s How I Look at “Buy Now vs. Wait”
If we're sitting together trying to make this decision, I'm going to show you different scenarios.
What if rates go down?
What if they don't?
What if home prices rise?
What if they stay relatively flat?
What if today's seller is willing to help with closing costs, but six months from now sellers aren't?
Those are scenarios—not predictions.
Then I want to look at you, because that's the part of this equation we have a little more control over.
What do you expect your income to look like six or twelve months from now?
Will your job be more established?
Will you have more cash?
Less debt?
Better reserves?
And are you comfortable staying where you are while you wait?
It usually brings me back to one simple question:
What gets better for you by waiting?
If we can identify something meaningful, waiting may make a lot of sense.
If the entire answer is “hopefully mortgage rates go down,” then I think we need to look a little harder at the decision.
If You Were My Kid, Here’s What I’d Tell You
We can't eliminate risk from life.
And we're definitely not going to eliminate it from buying a home.
So if you were my kid, I'd want to show you the different scenarios first.
Then I'd ask you:
Can you comfortably afford the home today?
Do you have some cash reserves to lean on if something goes sideways?
Are you prepared to keep today's mortgage if rates don't come down?
Do you understand the risks we can reasonably identify today?
Are you willing to accept that there are future risks neither of us can predict?
And do you actually have the committed mindset of being a homeowner?
If you can honestly answer yes to those questions, then my recommendation would probably be to buy.
If you can't, my recommendation may be to wait.
Either way, the final decision belongs to you.
My job as your mortgage advisor is to help you understand the numbers, talk through the possibilities, point out risks you may not have considered, and give you my recommendation based on your specific situation.
Your job is to decide which risks you're comfortable accepting—and take responsibility for that decision.
That's how I think this process should work.
Have a Question About Your Situation?
If you're trying to decide whether buying now or waiting makes more sense, maybe don't start with:
“Where are mortgage rates going?”
Instead, consider asking:
“What would actually improve for me by waiting?”
That's a conversation I'm happy to have.
If you're considering buying in Glenwood Springs, Carbondale, New Castle, Rifle, the Roaring Fork Valley, or elsewhere on Colorado's Western Slope, we can run the numbers, look at a few different scenarios, and talk through what makes sense for you.
Scott Wagner | Loan Officer | NMLS #612287
Edge Home Finance, LLC | NMLS #891464
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